Since spring, raw material prices have been affected by the military conflict between the United States and Iran. This has been visible especially in logistics costs and partly also in production costs through higher energy costs. Around 25% of the world’s crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz near Iran, which is why the situation has such a significant impact on crude oil prices and costs. Crude oil prices declined during the summer while peace negotiations were underway but rose again when the peace agreements failed to hold. There are still problems in the Suez Canal area with Houthi rebels, and most sea freight from the Far East continues to be routed around Africa. Lead times remain long and costs have increased. Companies have passed the higher costs on through various logistics surcharges or directly into raw material prices.
The El Niño weather phenomenon is developing in the Pacific Ocean and is forecast to become unusually strong towards the end of the year. El Niño temporarily increases the Earth’s average temperature and causes severe weather events: some regions suffer from drought and heat, while others experience floods and storms. Although the phenomenon originates in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts extend across the globe. Extremely high temperatures have already been seen in Europe, and forest fires have occurred in several countries. Together with the energy crisis and geopolitical tensions, these factors may affect the global economy and raw material price levels.